The Danger of Simplifying Complex Reality

The greatest risk we face is simplifying complex reality to support our existing ideas, instead of examining it critically and updating our views when we discover we were wrong.

We should always reason with the goal of progressing toward a better understanding of the world — with open-mindedness and the capacity to constantly question our own point of view.

The Test

Many people believe that, given the available options, their government didn’t choose the best solution. For this claim to be well-founded, you need:

1. Knowledge of the actual options — What were the real alternatives? What were the costs (including economic and social costs) and the potential risk reduction associated with each option?

2. The same information available at the time — Decision-makers knew there were things they didn’t know. They acted under uncertainty. Judging them with hindsight is easy but unfair.

What I Don’t Know

These questions require deep knowledge of how government actually functions, plus expertise in decision-making under uncertainty.

I’m not an expert in either domain. So I refrain from judging whether the measures were adequate.

The Meta-Point

This isn’t about any specific decision. It’s about intellectual honesty.

If you’re certain about complex questions in domains where you have no expertise, you’re probably not reasoning — you’re rationalizing. The confidence is the tell.

The goal isn’t to have the right opinion on everything. It’s to know what you actually know versus what you’re guessing.